Supreme Dice

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The biggest new uncertainty in US sports betting is prediction markets. The American Gaming Association estimates that Americans will legally wager $29.5 billion in betting handle through US regulated commercial sportsbooks during the 2026 NFL season, broadly unchanged from the $29.4 billion handle recorded in 2025. These figures refer to the amount wagered, not sportsbook revenue.

Robinson calls prediction markets “the main event”. His argument is not simply that US customers are moving from sportsbooks to prediction markets. The more important point is that sportsbooks no longer have the relatively protected market that was once assumed.

Kalshi, Robinhood, Crypto.com and DraftKings’ own prediction-market operation are all competing for activity around sporting events. Beynon says prediction markets are having a larger effect on valuations than on fundamentals so far.

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The group highlighted potential risks posed by Google’s organic search features beyond paid advertising, which include autocomplete and suggested queries. 

Using data collected primarily through Chrome’s incognito mode to exclude personalised search histories, the KVA identified several autocomplete and pre-fill search queries that directly suggested illegal gambling platforms to users.

Examples included phrases like “online casino zonder Cruks” (online casino without CRUKS, the Dutch self-exclusion registry for problem gamblers) and “beste online casino buitenland” (best online casino abroad).

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Macau generated MOP293.3 billion ($36.3 billion) in gross gaming revenue in 2019, equivalent to 65.8% of its GDP. In 2025, GGR stood at approximately $30.9 billion, still accounting for around 59% of GDP.

Yet Macau’s IR proposition extends well beyond the casino floor. Luxury accommodation, restaurants, shopping, concerts, conventions, art and other forms of entertainment have become part of a wider, equally indulgent experience surrounding gaming.

For Japan, the question is whether this broader proposition could make casino resorts more socially and culturally palatable by giving visitors reasons to come, other than gambling.