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About Breach The Vault
Madsen describes Trace2Trace as “a large search engine that continuously crawls websites”.
AI is used, but only towards the end of the process. First, the system gathers objective indicators; AI is then used to assess the overall pattern and probability of a connection. “We only provide evidence-based findings,” Madsen says. “We don’t say that something is a mirror site because we suspect it is. It is only reported when we are 100% confident there is a match.”
The timing is significant. The illegal gambling market is attracting growing attention from regulators and the wider industry, while estimates of its size vary considerably depending on definitions and methodology.
About Breach The Vault
While the Polymarket/Yahoo Finance situation is one of the earliest examples of a severed relationship between a prediction market operator and a media entity, that doesn’t mean those “divorces” will permeate the two industries.
There’s widespread belief that old guard media companies are incentivized to feature event contract data on their sites or reference it in select publications as a way of better connecting with younger readers and viewers.
Then there are the financial implications, namely new revenue streams. Prediction market operators typically pay media companies to integrate their data while some outlets also earn referral commissions for driving new business to yes/no exchanges.
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“Therefore, we have been having this debate,” he added. “I have been to Congress, the Supreme Federal Court, and the Attorney General’s office to talk about the impact of betting on the lives of Brazilians.
“We have made progress, such as increasing the direct tax to 15% and including the activity in the Selective Tax. Those benefiting from social programmes and those who joined the Desenrola programme were also prohibited from betting.”
He also pointed to the self-exclusion mechanism adopted by the government.
